Could shoe mania be another tulip bubble?

28/08/2019
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Core tips: after 70 fry, after 80 fry real estate, after 90 fry currency, after 00 fry shoes, a new investment boom is hand in hand with the young people's fashion wave surging forward.However, why are sneakers valuable, why can hobby become business, who is the winner behind the sneaker market, "Fried shoes" only earn not lose?These problems are not clear, follow the trend of the market, I am afraid that only become "leek" life.

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"One wall of sneakers, comparable to a suite" "one million per year of Fried shoes" "Fried shoes to make down payment"...True and false accompanied by the legend of the young man's sudden wealth.

Why are sneakers so glamorous?This is also due to its price in a few days can easily increase more than ten times the magic.Real aunt has been irate, currency circle people are Shouting "abandon currency from shoes", many outsiders also eager to try.

The post-70s, post-80s, post-90s and post-00s, a new investment boom is joining hands with the fashion wave of young people rushing forward.However, why are sneakers valuable, why can hobby become business, who is the winner behind the sneaker market, "Fried shoes" only earn not lose?These problems are not clear, follow the trend of the market, I am afraid that only become "leek" life.

Culture and feelings

Sneaker players often refer to themselves as sneaker, a term that started out as a reference to rubber-soled shoes and has since been extended to "people who love and collect shoes."As the number of people who play shoes has increased and formed their own circles, people have discussed the development of sneaker together, so has the so-called sneaker culture.

Sneaker first appeared in 1908 with converse. Later, with the introduction of well-known brands such as Nike and adidas, sneaker changed from monotonous to diversified, from heavy to comfortable and casual, and gradually integrated into People's Daily life with the development of technology and fashion.

The ultimate in sneaker culture is the AIR JORDAN basketball shoe, AJ, now the most hyped of them all.In 1985, Nike broke the rule by launching a black and red matching basketball shoe, namely AJ1 generation basketball shoe, and found the later world-famous basketball god Michael Jordan to be its spokesperson.

NBA officials imposed a hefty fine of $5,000 per game for matching the color of the shoes, which were not in line with NBA rules.Nike was willing to pay for it.The story of Nike paying a fine to support Jordan in his "banned" AJ1 game has been dubbed a "good talk" and is the perfect start to the AJ basketball shoe series.

Unique appearance, advanced technology, excellent marketing and moving story, combined with the basketball gods is a fantastic career and a number of impressive historical moments, and Jordan victory in order to overcome various difficulties, overcome the challenges, embody the ultimate pursuit of strong desire for victory, to AJ series basketball shoes have too much spirit meaning.

It can be said that the sneaker culture represented by AJ series of basketball shoes is essentially a spiritual sustentation of idol worship.Players hope to purchase sneakers to express their love for idols, learning from idols of perseverance, desire for victory, overcome difficulties will quality.In fact, this kind of consumption is to pay for the feelings, is also the power of the formation of the sneaker market at the beginning, but also became the "shoe" speculation and harvest selling point.

So, sneaker market develops till now, although feeling is in, but interest and vanity element are more fill.Less is expensive, expensive is good, favorable to rush, sell on stock, has let the market full of the "smell of money".Students' excessive consumption and comparison consumption, shoe dealers' speculative hoarding and price gouging, merchants' wanton speculation and hunger marketing...All sorts of chaos let sneaker market close price only, have nothing to do with feelings.Where is culture without feelings?

Business and winners

Nowadays, when new shoes are put on sale, hundreds of thousands of people often participate in the online shoe lottery, while offline, hundreds of people often queue in the rain, overnight queue "wonders".The crazy buying off line and the large-scale online trading show the huge demand and potential of the shoe market, which forms the basis of "Fried shoes".

Huge demand is driven by insane profits.In the near future, the AJ1 sneaker of color of match colors of black toe of red silk of a female money, offer price is 1299 yuan, in presale phase "take off", lowest price also broke through 5000 yuan mark, highest close to 10 thousand yuan.

In July, more than 100 pairs of rare running shoes sold for $1,287,500, or 9.09 million yuan, at a sneaker auction in London.

In addition, the shoe asset "securitization" also emerged.A number of sneaker trading platform apps have launched fashionable shoe quotation and real-time quotation functions, and AJ index, Nike index and adidas index have been launched according to the daily trading volume, and the "three major indexes" have become the "Fried shoes" guide.What's more, 55 exchange, the world's first trading exchange that can trade shoes, quietly launched, and introduced block chain technology into the shoe ring, with the introduction of popular logo general certificate that can be traded for profit or exchange for physical objects.

The collective fanaticism of brand owners, platforms, shoe dealers and retail investors, as well as the gradual application of k-line, futures, currency circle and other factors, make the sneaker market become a systematic business.Is this an opportunity or a bubble?

A product is hyped, must have its guarantee value.In layman's terms, even when the economy is at its worst, the hyped goods will not become "waste".Throughout the past, speculation in real estate, stocks, futures, these things can be converted into money and goods at any time, have guaranteed value.

And although sneaker itself is material object, but regard a kind of meeting ageing consumable, itself is to be able to because time is lengthened and depreciate gradually.One might argue that even though shoes age, their scarcity makes them "scarce and expensive."

Rare for expensive is indeed a basis of "Fried shoes".However, in reality, the major brands only design, and most of the production process is out of control due to outsourcing or commission.Therefore, the amount of official declared goods may not be consistent with the actual output. Considering such factors as "private property" and "high imitation", the actual amount of goods may even be much larger than the amount of official declared goods in the market.In a market where production cannot be controlled, scarcity is impossible and there is no basis for hype.

In the above case, scarcity is just a gimmick of hunger marketing to create a rip-off effect and convince consumers of scarcity, but the psychological value of consumers does not guarantee that the actual value of sneakers will always be bullish.

In addition, the star with goods, idol effect is to boost the "Fried shoes" another factor.Brand manufacturers send sneakers to various traffic stars for free to wear, generating demonstration effect, which makes many young people have the illusion that wearing the same style of idols will become idols themselves. This is actually advocating that consumption equals social status, which is a typical consumption trap.

Today, "Fried shoes" is ultimately a business, and there is always a winner.So who's the winner?Manufacturers can influence the volume of goods from the source, is the price of the setters and promoters, have a monopoly position and absolute advantage.And the platform of secondary market, scalpers have the advantage of channel and time difference, which means they have the advantage of getting goods and information.Supply and channels are not in the hands of retail players, so you can imagine the difficulty of making money.Thus, the market initiative is also clearly visible.

Risk and regulation

"Hooks go bankrupt," says the expensive value of an AJ1 joint.The shoes, dubbed the "king of shoes of the year" by some players, have been sold for more than 10,000 yuan, with some sizes reaching 20,000 yuan.But shoes such as the adidas yeezy 350 white zebras have seen their prices halve twice as vendors restocked.

So, high profits are matched by high risks in the "Fried shoes" market."Four years ago, 9 out of 10 shoe sellers made a profit, now 7 out of 10 lose," says one veteran seller.

In fact, the shoe market risks resemble the tulip bubble.The tulip bubble was the first recorded financial bubble in human history.In the 17th century, western europeans were crazy about tulips and speculated wildly.People no longer bought tulips for their intrinsic value or for their ornamental use, but to profit from the expectation that their price would rise indefinitely.

The tulip bubble will burst when people realize that such speculation does not create wealth, but merely transfers it.The buying frenzy turned into a fire sale, prices collapsed, the market crashed and thousands of speculators lost their homes.This event metaphorical law, in people's later development practice repeatedly fulfilled.

Markets are inherently blind, spontaneous and lagging, and when the invisible hand fails, the visible hand should work.And from the current shoe market, the lack of regulation.What's more, there has been the embarrassment of unclear market regulatory bodies, which has led to the proliferation of fake goods, financial lawlessness, vicious bidding and other problems from time to time.

At present, the "Fried" shoe market frenzy has deviated from the normal law of value, also is in scarcity premium can explain, bubbles, which is formed by the risk and regulation of problems not only need to follow up in time, more important is need players to form a consensus, return to rational, collective action, to prevent the tragedy of the "tulip bubble" again.